Localização:
Sala 12.2.21 DCSPTData de início:
GOVCOPP Research Seminar | May 2026
May 27th, 2026
Room 12.2.21 (DCSPT)
13h - 15h
Grupo de Investigação CIS
Beyond Economic Growth: An Integrated Evolutionary Perspective on Job Quality
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and decent work through an integrated evolutionary perspective on job quality. While economic growth is often assumed to generate better employment outcomes, the empirical evidence suggests that growth alone does not guarantee fair wages, employment security, or improved working conditions. In many economies, periods of macroeconomic expansion have coexisted with wage stagnation, in-work poverty, labour market segmentation, and persistent inequalities across sectors, age groups, and employment statuses. This raises an important analytical and policy question: under what conditions does economic growth translate into genuinely decent work?
Drawing on international evidence on wages, labour market inequalities, youth employment, and vulnerable work, the paper argues that the quality of employment depends not only on the pace of growth but also on the institutional and structural mechanisms through which growth is produced and distributed. An evolutionary approach is particularly useful in this context because it highlights the cumulative, path-dependent and sectorally differentiated nature of economic change. It allows us to understand job quality as an outcome shaped by institutional arrangements, productive structures, technological trajectories, bargaining systems, and state intervention, rather than as an automatic by-product of GDP expansion.
The paper also introduces an illustrative Portuguese case by comparing the long-term evolution of gross monthly pay for assistant professors in Portuguese public universities with Portugal’s economic growth over the last three decades. This profession-specific evidence reinforces the central argument of the paper: macroeconomic growth, taken in isolation, is an insufficient proxy for decent work. A more comprehensive understanding of labour outcomes requires attention to how growth is mediated by institutions, wage-setting regimes, and sectoral dynamics, and to how these processes shape the quality of work over time.
Grupo de Investigação SAD
Does the Top 1% Drive Wage Erosion? Evidence of Temporal Precedence and Financialization in the OECD (2000–2023)
Abstract
The persistent decline of the labour share in national income represents a fundamental structural shift in advanced economies, raising critical questions
regarding distributive governance. This paper investigates the relationship between financialization, proxied by income concentration at the top 1%, and the evolution of the wage share.
To mitigate concerns related to endogeneity, the empirical strategy employs Fixed Effects (FE) models on a panel of 27 OECD countries (2000–2023), incorporating oneyear lagged explanatory variables to explore the temporal ordering of the relationship. The results reveal a robust and statistically significant negative association (p < 0.01), indicating that increases in top income concentration systematically precede declines in the labour share.
These findings suggest that top income concentration is a significant predictor of wage compression. The relationship is consistent with theoretical mechanisms discussed in the literature, including shifts in bargaining power, rising mark-ups, financial pressures on firms, and increased financial vulnerability of households. Overall, the results support the view that financialization is a key structural factor behind the decoupling of productivity from wages, with important implications for financial regulation and labour market institutions.
Keywords: Financialization; Wage Share; Top 1%; OECD; Panel Data; Temporal Precedence.
Grupo de Investigação PI2
Determinants of the financial inclusion social contract in Sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract
Financial inclusion (FI) has emerged as a critical development and economic policy, widely recognized for its role in reducing poverty, empowering marginalized groups, and strengthening monetary and financial systems. When a society is financially included, especially in developing economies, positive social and economic outcomes follow (Allen et al., 2016; Demirgüç-Kunt et al., 2017, 2018; Gupta et al., 2014; Voica, 2017). Although not a standalone Sustainable Development Goal, the United Nations recognizes FI, primarily through digital channels, as a key enabler of progress across the SDG agenda, including SDG 8 on decent work and inclusive economic growth.
Despite substantial global gains in reducing exclusion over the past decade, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continues to underperform the global average on all measures of FI, with FI rates varying widely across the continent (Chinoda & Kapingura, 2024). Why do some SSA countries achieve high levels of FI while others lag behind?
This paper addresses that puzzle through fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 28 SSA countries over the 2014 to 2024 period. Drawing on multi-theoretic determinant literatures, spanning institutional theory, developmental state theory, the democracy and FI literature, and the capability approach, it tests how five theoretically grounded conditions, namely rule of law, policy delivery capability, democracy, strategic state commitment to financial inclusion, and human development capabilities, combine to produce high FI outcomes.
The initial findings point to equifinality: there is no single path for high FI in SSA, nor any strictly necessary conditions; instead, three distinct configurations are each sufficient to produce high FI. The first rests on institutional strength, with the joint presence of the rule of law, policy delivery capability, and democracy. The second is a developmental state pathway, in which policy delivery capability, strategic commitment, and human development capabilities together produce high FI without requiring either strong rule of law or democracy. The third combines democracy with strategic commitment and human capabilities, capturing smaller states that compensate for weaker institutional capacity through political commitment and democratic accountability.
These initial findings carry direct implications for growth- and decent-work-oriented FI agendas: state capacity and strategic commitment can substitute for institutional quality and democratic governance in producing high FI, opening alternative pathways to inclusion.
Grupo de Investigação TD
Title: Study of the Labour market for the Portuguese tourism sector
Abstract
The T&H industry has been facing several challenges in the labour market. This study aims to analyse, evaluate, and forecast the labour market in the tourism sector and its subsectors over a 10-year period, identifying challenges, opportunities, and future trends. It adopts an approach that combines secondary data analysis and primary data collection. In an initial phase, it combined secondary data analysis (Quadros do Pessoal database) with primary data collection, including questionnaires administered to workers and tourism students, and semi-structured interviews conducted with representatives of the main tourism associations in Portugal. The questionnaires were analysed using SPSS, and the interviews using NVivo. The results provide an overview of the Portuguese labour market, presenting the main challenges, needs and access conditions, as well as the key trends and employment outlook in the sector. This study sets out guidelines for the tourism industry, presenting 13 policy and strategic measures that may be implemented by the Government, sector stakeholders, and research structures.
Keywords: Labour market, Tourism, Hospitality, Policies, Portugal
As inscrições para o almoço + seminário estão abertas até 20 de maio. As inscrições apenas para o seminário estão abertas até 26 de maio.
