Objective
Imbalances in the health workforce may lead to undersupply or oversupply of health professionals. The consequences of those imbalances may create a significant deficit in the health system which in turn may lead to unmet healthcare needs. As such, several methodologies have emerged to address the challenge of planning healthcare workforce. This project aims to overcome the limitations found in previous studies by proposing a new approach for estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium at 2040. In addition, it intends to identify the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and to estimate the number of students that must enter in medicine and nursing training system, each year, considering several specialties.
Methodology
The research will deliver a dynamic approach of the demand and supply evolution, through the use Bayesian methods. The drivers of the evolution of healthcare professionals at the demand side include: (i) the demographic evolution by age structure, defined by economic and demographic scenarios; (ii) economic growth and the income elasticity of demand concerning healthcare services; (iii) public health policies; (iv) new technologies (e.g. through the implementation of telemedicine) The drivers at the supply side involve 2 drivers, the healthcare professionals demography (retirement, withdrawal and migration), and the entries in the education system.
